Subject: Regular Season Win Totals Pick: Miami OVER 6.5

Miami OVR 6.5 @ -130

Miami won 8 regular season games last year, despite a lack of experience. This year, Miami has 9 returning starters on offense including their QB. I think Mark Richt is a great coach, and that you’ll see a decent turn around in Year One. I would not be surprised if the Hurricanes won 10 games this season.

Phil Steele projects Miami to win their division, and College Football News has Miami winning 9 games. If they are accurate, Miami will cover the 6.5 Win Total with room to spare.

In the non-conference portion of the schedule, Appalachian State replaces Cincinnati, and Notre Dame replaces Nebraska. Miami lost to Cincy and beat Nebraska last year; and I expect them to beat App State but lose to Notre Dame, therefore the Non-Conference slate will be a wash from last year.

The Conference schedule eases up a bit from last season as NC State replaces Clemson. So when you consider that Miami starts with a baseline of 8 wins from the previous season, and you factor in more experience on offense, coupled with a slightly easier conference schedule…reaching 7 wins seems quite likely.

Here’s the schedule:

W – Florida A&M
W – FAU
W – App State
T – @ Ga Tech
L – Florida State
L – North Carolina
T – @ Virginia Tech
L – @ Notre Dame
T – Pitt
W – @ Virginia
T – @ NC State
W – Duke

5 Wins, 3 Losses, 4 Toss Ups

Key Game to hit this wager: @NC State. The Wolfpack replace Clemson (who hammered Miami last season 58-0). If Miami beats NC State…it will flip a game from the “Loss” to “Win” column and will provide additional cushion to cover this wager.

Freebie: North Carolina. If the ‘Canes beat the Tar Heels this wager will cover; and will also put Miami in the drivers seat to win the Coastal Division. I predict Miami will upset either Florida State or North Carolina this season.

Landmine: @Ga Tech. Beat the Yellow Jackets, and Miami will be 4-0 and have tremendous momentum going into the Florida State game. Miami will have a week off to prepare for Tech’s option attack. Ga Tech will be in a let down spot here, having hosted Clemson the week before – on a Thursday night game. I think the ‘Canes extra time to prep, plus an emotionally depleted Yellow Jacket squad will give Miami the win here.

Special Note: I picked Miami OVR 6.5 a few weeks ago. But the current line has moved up to Miami OVR 7.5.