Week One Pick Formula: “Fade the Favorite”

The following formula has shown success in the past (including a 4-0 record last season) when making picks in Week One. The formula goes as follows:
Fade Favorites who, in the previous season
(1) Gave up 35+ ppt
(2) Gave up 450+ ypg
(3) Gave up 200 yards rush in per game
When using this formula, the following favorites should be faded in week one:
SMU and Tulsa.

SMU is currently trading at -10 or -10.5 (depending on the book) against North Texas. SMU opened at most books at -12 or 12.5, so some value has been lost here.
I made a play on UNT for 1 unit at +10.5
Tulsa is currently trading between -4 and -4.5 against San Jose State. The Hurricanes opened at between -6 and -8 at most books, so some significant value has been lost on this play.
I’ll wait and see if the line moves in a favorable direction this week. If it does, I’ll make a play on San Jose State plus the points for 1 unit.
Other notable mentions:
The Arizona Wildcats almost made the “Fade the Favorite” list, but failed to hit the “200 yards rushing” category by only 1 yard. The ‘Cats opened as a three point favorite against BYU, but are currently only trading at -1.5. If the line moves back up to -3 I’ll make a play on BYU.

Indiana almost made the list as well, only falling short by 4 rushing yards per game. I made a play on the Hoosiers opponent, taking FIU +9 for 2.5 units. Last season, the Panthers lost to Indiana by 14 on the road. FIU suffered a 90+ yard pick 6 which skewed the final score from last season. I look for FIU to rebound at home and cover the spread.

Cal also missed the “Fade the Favorite” list by only one category – giving up 30.7 ppg instead of the 35 ppg needed to qualify. I faded the Bears anyway and took Hawaii +21 @ 2.5 units. If there is significant line movement below -21, I may try to “Bet the Middle” by wagering on Cal.